N = 1,730 firm-years · S&P 500 · 2010–2020
Forward-Looking Disclosures and Corporate Credit Ratings
The Impact of Forward-Looking Disclosures on Corporate Credit Ratings: Risk Sentiment and Disclosure Complexity
Working paper · intended PhD writing sample · advised by Prof. Raymond Y.K. Lau · Draft manuscript in progress
Annual reports carry subtle, hard-to-verify signals about future risk, especially in the forward-looking statements where managers discuss expectations and adverse conditions. I separate the semantic content of disclosure from its information-processing cost through a two-channel framework: a content channel measuring risk sentiment with FinBERT, and a clarity channel measuring complexity with Flesch–Kincaid readability. Across the panel, disclosure complexity tracks ratings more consistently, while sentiment matters most for larger firms — suggesting that rating-relevant textual signals depend on a firm's information environment.