N = 1,818 firm-years · 278 firms · 2010–2020
Textual Signals in Forward-Looking Disclosures and Corporate Credit Ratings
Risk Sentiment and Disclosure Clarity
Working paper · intended PhD writing sample · guided by Prof. Raymond Y.K. Lau · Draft manuscript in progress
Annual reports carry subtle, hard-to-verify signals about future risk, especially in the forward-looking statements where managers discuss expectations and adverse conditions. I separate the risk expectations conveyed in disclosure from the clarity of their expression through a two-channel framework: a content channel measured with FinBERT and a clarity channel inversely proxied by Flesch–Kincaid grade level. Across the corrected, report-date-aligned panel, lower clarity is robustly associated with lower ratings, while sentiment is substantially more salient among relatively larger firms.